Ayr Gold Cup Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends

“He didn’t have much of a race in France, it was a non event, so that is his first real race (of the season) today and he handled the ground. I think we will stay at a mile, looking at him today he could step up a little bit further, but we will see. He was bred by Sheikh Mohammed Obaid and is a great advert for a new stallion. Quite often you call these horses something that they’re not, because you want them to be the best horse you’ve trained – and quite often you are disappointed. I don’t know how we messed it up, but that’s behind us now. Rosallion came out on top in the eagerly-anticipated clash of three 2000 Guineas winners in the St James’s Palace Stakes, as he lived up to all of Richard Hannon’s billing as the best horse he has ever trained.

• We know she seems to thrive at the Festival and the fitting of first-time cheekpieces could improve her performance against Lossiemouth.
• An Ayr maiden winner from six attempts as a juvenile, the Roger Varian-trained son of Profitable has taken a step forward on each of his four starts this season.
• FAMOUS CLERMONT is a tentative selection in a wide-open affair, following an effortless 18-length romp at Haydock.
• Successful in spells with John Gosden and Ralph Beckett, the son of Galileo was off the track for 511 days before making the frame twice from three attempts over hurdles.
• For example, the going at Cheltenham last week was Good and it was noticeable that connections did not want to risk some of their better class horses making seasonal returns and debuts on anything other than totally ideal jumping ground.
• We came over in the nice interchange period, and we need not have worried because she settled in brilliantly, and the proof was in the pudding today.
• By looking at the performance of the horses and their jockeys, we can try to guess how they might perform when the gates open.
• Looking for correlation is difficult in what is, granted, a crowded table.

Horse racing tips: Newton Abbot and Nottingham – Wednesday October 30

Luck in running is needed by all; most have a little more meat on their price than this lad. Willie is 0/14 in this race but went very close last year when Saint Sam was second (Ciel De Neige 3rd in 2019, too). Of that last named cohort, maybe Teahupoo has advanced his claims since the turn of the year. He’s still yet to race in Grade 1 company, but has been dominant in winning a brace of Grade 3’s either side of a Grade 2 score. He’s looked like there is plenty more to come but his potential is more than factored into quotes of 8/1 especially when noting his lack of form on a sound surface (for which, granted, he could improve, though I don’t expect him to). Trained by Colin Tizzard, his sole defeat in four progressive chase starts was when well seen off, but still best of the rest, behind Edwardstone in the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown in December.

First race on the card is the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle

The Glancing Queen will no doubt be well fancied for the feature race, but she hasn’t been the soundest jumper over hurdles and is worth opposing on her chase debut. Donald McCain is on a tremendous run of form (35% Strike Rate last 14 days) and there is every reason to believe she could add to the stables recent successes. If Chacun Pour Soi runs and wins at the Dublin Racing Festival this weekend – he’s currently a best priced 4/9 so to do – he’ll be shorter for the winning margin bets and odds on for the Champion Chase. If he doesn’t run, he’ll be circa evens on the day assuming he shows up. But, like I say, I think he’s a more robust animal this season, and I’m prepared to back that perception.

Cheltenham Festival Open Grade 1’s

So, during this short hiatus from decent turf action, I thought it might be worth looking at a couple of the more interesting ‘side bets’. In short, stuff could – and at some point probably will – happen. But I’d be hard pushed to bet against any of this quintet in the win slot Bolts Up Daily if they trotted round at the start. If Energumene and Allmankind lock horns on the speed, they may both pay for those exertions in the manner that Saint Calvados and Petit Mouchoir did in the 2018 renewal of this race, setting things up for a 14-length rout for Footpad.

All of Ireland will be screaming for Samcro – and there’s no Cheltenham thrill like it

Just ask those that swear by each of the above, and the countless many other race betting systems out there. At the end of the day, this is a results business, and if a system isn’t driving results, punters won’t stick with it for long. While some will sneer at systems and programmatic strategies, the proof of the pudding is always in the eating. When it comes to racing, the sheer choice on the betting front is enormous, and, frankly, a little difficult to comprehend for a beginner.

Marlborough racing tips and best bets for today’s races

The Williams team have excellent contacts in France and have a long history of recruiting nice hurdlers from across the channel. I’d love him to be up there from the outset as there isn’t much pace elsewhere in the race and that looks the best scenario for Jack Tudor to get a truly run race to suit. It must be a recurring issue they keep having to tinker with. Of course, if a horse keeps running badly you’d be wise to give it a wide berth, but ignoring one or two bad runs can lead you to back winners at decent prices.

Roksana – Stayers’ Hurdle – 7/1 bet365 (NRNB, BOG) or 8/1 Sky/Fred (NRNB)

• That is not, of course, because he can’t or won’t win; but rather that his price probably over-states his chance currently.
• Going a step further, I’d favour run style over draw in certain scenarios which I’ll come on to.
• 28 races, almost all of them head-scratching puzzles in terms wagering possibilities…
• It is also true that RP has been dishing up in deep ground and it remains to be seen how he handles quicker terrain.
• Also, for readers with little time to study form, I am confident there are plenty of systems around that are less likely to produce a profit at the Festival than this one.
• Tiger Roll’s 2019 Aintree heroics in partnership with Russell was the first time a horse had won back-to-back renewals since Red Rum in the 1970s.
• The jockey – trainer’s son – is a slight concern, too, as he won’t be able to claim his usual five pounds.

Paddy Power is the winner in terms of live streaming, with Betfair a close second, for both the range and quality of their live streams. Our AI articles are NOT written by a real person and are provided for entertainment only. They may contain content which is inaccurate but we are hoping our AI bot, Rose, will become better over time. The AI category is the ONLY section of JuiceStorm.com that has zero human input. BetTrader from RacingTraders.co.uk was the 1st application for Betfair & introduced the ladder UI.

Ayr Gold Cup Trends

The main event on Day One is the Champion Hurdle, a two mile Grade 1 where the reigning champion, Honeysuckle, will bid to defend her crown. Not only is Kenny Alexander’s mare the reigning champ but she is also unbeaten in 14 career starts under Rules and, before that, a single point to point. The furlong shorter trip compared with the Irish Arkle might be a benefit to Blue Lord, whose credentials look most apparent of the Irish runners even though the eye was naturally drawn to Riviere d’Etel’s unlucky runner up effort there. Haut En Couleurs has plenty of untapped potential and could usurp the finishers from that race if standing up. The jockey – trainer’s son – is a slight concern, too, as he won’t be able to claim his usual five pounds. Maries Rock is very keen, while Teahupoo needs soft ground (might get it).

Patrick Mullins

William Buick winners have been with Bohemian Melody (2011) and Jamaican Bolt (2014). Silvestre De Sousa winners have been with Thunderball (2012) and Aberama Gold (2020). As with all the reports, you can set parameters at the top to filter the day’s qualifiers. And there are various other filtering options – for instance, I’m looking at the Course 5 Year Form view here, which tells me Harry Fry has run two handicap debutants at Plumpton since 19th December 2017.

Cheltenham Festival 2021: 7 NRNB ‘Free Hits’

Here there appears to be quite strong correlation between Elliott’s four-month form and his Festival form. When looking at a combination of events – say, all trainer’s runners over a period of time – we can derive an overall PRB figure and use that for comparative purposes. Asterion Forlonge – not on his feet for longe [harsh] – is a really talented horse who is probably just a bit soft.

Value Bet tips: Saturday, December 23

We’ll have contributions from our resident tipster as well as the chief sports writer, Paul Hayward, racing correspondent, Marcus Armytage and our Centaur correspondent, Alan Tyers. Stays further than 2m and loves heavy ground so has to be a serious player. Mullins-trained Douvan ‘drifting like a barge’ in the betting, according to Matt Chapman. Altior sees off Min to retain his unbeaten record over obstacles. Altior’s Champion Chase victory was his 13th win in his last 13 races – that’s also Nicky Henderson’s fifth victory in the Queen Mother Champion Chase. Pre-race favourite Cause of Causes is right at the back of the field.

The historic Royal Artillery Gold Cup is restricted to military amateur riders. Hello George is of interest, being potentially well handicapped. He is very lightly raced and is expected to improve from his reappearance effort.

Presenting Percy goes off as favourite in the 2.10

Her stablemate Nashwa is another with huge ability but is likely to need this run after a break. So that leaves Guineas heroine Elmalka and See The Fire as the main dangers. Despite being novices, most horses running in the Festival novice races have an official rating.

At the last five Festivals, they have collectively bagged 82 of the 140 races. Throw in Henry de Bromhead – whose team is bolstered by the high profile addition of the Cheveley Park bluebloods – and Dan Skelton and you have six handlers responsible for two-thirds of the Festival winners in the last five years. Between them, they’ll be long odds-on to take at least half of the 28 prizes on offer next week. That brace of novice G1’s, the second of which was at beyond three miles, advertised his prospective Gold Cup claims, something a facile match score over The Big Breakaway did little to rebuke.

• Easysland was expected to bolt up before flopping at the November meeting; he was then expected to race in France as a preparation but skipped that, too, so comes in off that solitary, below par, effort.
• Still, those fences need to be jumped, and he has to arrive pristine at Prestbury.
• Arriving at a selection is also fun, the process taking a good bit longer than the actual event for most ‘serious recreationals’.
• MT – This is a great betting race, as it’s a different test from most of the races through the season and throws up some big priced winner as a result.
• The leading trainer in the Ayr Gold Cup over the last 20 renewals is Kevin Ryan who has won the race five times with those five winners coming from Advanced (2007), Our Jonathan (2011), Captain Ramius (2012), Brando (2016) and Bielsa (2021).
• Only one winner shorter than 11/1 in the past nine years.

Skybet are actually offering prices on winning margins of 2+ lengths (10/11), 4+ lengths (2/1), 6+ lengths (10/3), 8+ lengths (5/1) and 10+ lengths (7/1). February is upon us and, with it, the focus on the Cheltenham Festival becomes more intense. Regardless of the debate about the middle March showpiece overpowering the National Hunt calendar’s narrative, there is no denying it offers a rich range of options from an ante post perspective.

• The two wins were both achieved by the same horse, Buena Vista, in the same race, the Pertemps Final.
• In the five previous renewals, the race went more in keeping with the form already in the book as 5/1 Duc Des Genievres was the only one of the quintet of Arkle winners between 2015 and 2019 to score at odds against.
• The pick of the day is, of course, the Queen Mother Champion Chase at 3.30pm.
• Shishkin is undeniably more of a horse than Footpad, and a tear up on the front end could see him record the largest winning distance of the meeting.
• As the ground at Newcastle is already on the firm side of Good a fair amount of watering will be planned.
• The latter pair are both trained by Willie Mullins and both came with ostensibly good French form.
• In 2020, Al Boum Photo raced midfield but never more than about five lengths from a lead shared without contest; and the previous year, the same horse was ridden more patiently after a number of rivals battled for early primacy.

Over the course of his first 15 months (Jan 21 to March 22), he performed so well that we setup a Free Tipster service for SBC members to follow. Thus ‘No Foto Needed’ was born –  a way for him to supply advice via this specially curated SBC run service, without having to put his real name to its operation. No Foto Needed secured 18.84% of the vote, beating some well respected and high profile services in the process.

Tips & Insights

• He looks like he belongs at this level, but conditions would be a concern.
• They may look the same but horses, like human athletes, require certain conditions to produce their best.
• The first chase of the week is the Arkle Challenge Trophy, a two mile event for novices.
• Two tries at the track, both at the Festival, have yielded two victories; the Bumper score was by a narrow margin, his Ballymore victory more unequivocal.
• The question is whether he will transfer that form to hurdles.
• But as a professional you do not have bets just for the sake of it.
• It’s hard to know exactly what he beat in the G2 but second-placed Gringo d’Aubrelle had previously been a ten length third to Stage Star in the G1 Challow over further.
• To spell it out, in the most recent two Cheltenham Festivals, Irish runners have secured 22 wins compared with just six for the UK.

At least, that’s my reading of this vaguest of vaguenesses. Specifically, we’ll try to conjecture a) which horses will run in the 2022 Gold Cup, and b) how they might be expected to assemble themselves through the first mile – and at what sort of an overall speed. All that means is Ireland have won five of the last six renewals of the Cheltenham Gold Cup, and current market sentiment points to a sixth pot in seven years. He does finish second unnervingly frequently – he’s allowed one to pass in five of his last six chases – but otherwise is a strong box-ticker for all that he’s no Prestbury Park previous. Fitting the historical profile more snugly is the Gordon Elliott inmate, Run Wild Fred, who represents Gigginstown and is ridden by Jamie Codd. Codd has piloted the winner in three of the last six renewals where amateur jockeys contested (professionals last year due to Covid), two of the three coming for Elliott.

He’s by Galileo out of the star mare Annie Power, which perhaps explains the ownership triumvirate – or at least two-thirds of it. He’s three from three to date – a bumper, a novice at the Galway Festival, and the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer in January. Winners of the Moscow Flyer include Douvan, Vautour, Min, and more recently Impaire Et Passe. While the form of this season’s renewal has yet to be franked, Mystical Power bolted up by seven lengths and he is yet to be extended.

Ile Atlantique, another Willie entry, was outstayed by yet another from Closutton in Readin Tommy Wrong in the G1 Lawlor’s of Naas over two and a half last time. Tommy heads for the Albert Bartlett, rightly so as his effort in Naas was very much one of a stayer. It is often said of the Gallagher that it’s more of a speed than a stamina test, with runners tending to settle into a steadier rhythm than, say, the Supreme – a two mile burn up from flag fall. That being the case, Ile Atlantique’s two mile tactical speed could be valuable, though he’s only run once over timber prior to his defeat last time.

• If you are unaware of what trends and statistics are, how they can be used etc then head over to the OLBG Betting School and read this Stats And Trends article which will make everything much clearer.
• The selection has no room for error off top-weight, but no one rides the straight course at Ascot better than Spencer.
• The British handicapper seems not to be on the same page with his European counterparts, ranking Irish form more highly and French form lower.
• El Fabiolo “occasionally quite clumsy”, but agree the Irish Arkle is the best form on show so far.
• We start with the Gold Cup, which has had more headlines recently for the non-runners rather than those taking part.

Although GALOPIN DES CHAMPS has to prove himself over an extra two and a half furlongs, he has a touch of brilliance about him suggesting he can prevail in a Gold Cup. Bar an agonising fall at the final fence when well clear in last year’s Turners Novices’ Chase, he would be heading to Cheltenham looking for a third festival success, and he relishes spring ground. Still only seven years of age, he is also versatile regarding tactics and there is an awful lot to like about his credentials. Hunters Yarn is a horse that jumps off the page in this race. The stable have won this twice in the last 3 years and tend to have a good horse in it.

She was very impressive on Irish debut at Fairyhouse beating Zarak the Brave and backed it up at Leopardstown at Christmas before being narrowly beaten by Gala Marceau at the DRF. Lossiemouth was severely hampered at one stage and looked well beaten before staying on strongly to finish only 2.5 Lengths behind the winner. I’ve spoken historically about “the rule of two”, whereby we get past the notion that a single heavy ground win might have been in a very weak race or by some sort of fluke. Two wins affirms that a horse is definitely suited – or can at least handle – extreme going. Naturally, if the horse is two from five, it will be more compelling than if it’s two from 25! And, of course, as we should never tire of saying, the price makes the play.

There are many factors to consider when looking for racing tips. He was much improved at Kempton last time when rattling home and he’s had a little nudge down the weights. The only place to get Templegate’s tips first – and at the best prices – is by joining Sun Racing’s brilliant Members Enclosure.